Poor Luxury

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“Poor” luxury risks to be deeply impacted by the Coronavirus emergency.

It is news of today that the former SIHH, now “Wonder and Watches”, the high-end watchmaking fair in Geneva, has cancelled its 2020 edition.

Unstoppable Luxury

The Coronavirus appeared recently as a totally unexpected emergency in a time of double digit growth for many luxury houses.

Nothing seemed to stop them and the sense of entitlement grew accordingly.

It was like being on a high speed train projected to unstoppable success and rewards.

The Black Swan Effect

Then a Black Swan appeared at the horizon.

“What is a Black Swan?” might ask someone who hasn’t read Taleb bestseller book yet.

“A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics:

  1. It is unpredictable;
  2. It carries a massive impact;
  3. And, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.”

While a recession was in the air, this epidemic has a less controllable psychological impact in the markets.

The luxury industry was not prepared, nor were the big consulting firms, because they were stuck in a honey trap.

The wake up call will be very hard for those ones who just followed the flow of cashing in on Chinese customers and didn’t properly developed a balanced, solid growth.

Is it too late to change direction? It depends on how the companies have been developed to be “antifragile”…

What is “Antifragile”?

As per the book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of “Black Swan”, the “antifragile” is one step beyond robust, as it benefits from adversity, uncertainty and stressors, just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension.

“He who is not antifragile will perish” Taleb, a former trader, a NYU professor and a bestseller writer, said.

It’s time to go back to the fundamentals and start playing seriously, again.


More to follow…