A World at Risk

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The world is at risk.

Some may say that the coronavirus emergency was unpredictable.

Well, this is not the case.

In September 2019, the World Health Organization (a specialized agency of the United Nations dedicated to health) issued a report called “The world is at risk”

The introduction said “While disease has always been part of the human experience, a combination of global trends, including insecurity and extreme weather, has heightened the risk. Disease thrives in disorder and has taken advantage–outbreaks have been on the rise for the past several decades and the spectre of a global health emergency looms large. If it is true to say “what’s past is prologue”, then there is a very real threat of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen killing 50 to 80 million people and wiping out nearly 5% of the world’s economy.”

“A global pandemic on that scale would be catastrophic, creating widespread havoc, instability and insecurity. The world is not prepared.”

It also stated that ” The world is at acute risk for devastating regional or global disease epidemics or pandemics that not only cause loss of life but upend economies and create social chaos.”

And “The world is not prepared for a fast-moving, virulent respiratory pathogen pandemic. The 1918 global influenza pandemic sickened one third of the world population and killed as many as 50 million people – 2.8% of the total population (16,17). If a similar contagion occurred today with a population four times larger and travel times anywhere in the world less than 36 hours, 50 – 80 million people could perish (18,19). In addition to tragic levels of mortality, such a pandemic could cause panic, destabilize national security and seriously impact the global economy and trade.”

And it also focused on 7 urgent actions to prepare the world for health emergencies:

  1. Heads of governments must commit and invest

2. Countries and regional organizations must lead by example

3. All countries must build strong systems.

4. Countries, donors and multilateral institutions must be prepared for the worst.

5. Financing institutions must link preparedness with financial risk planning.

6. Development assistance funders must create incentives and increase funding for preparedness.

7.The United Nations must strengthen coordination mechanisms.

It also says that “A rapidly spreading pandemic due to a lethal respiratory pathogen (whether naturally emergent or accidentally or deliberately released) poses additional preparedness requirements. Donors and multilateral institutions must ensure adequate investment in developing innovative vaccines and therapeutics, surge manufacturing capacity, broad-spectrum antivirals and appropriate non-pharmaceutical interventions. ”

Maybe nobody paid attention to this document or maybe they didn’t believe in it. In the best scenario.

No, it’s not a black swan. At all.